YTD trading analysis

March 20, 2006

Mutual fund holdings

flpsx 1/1:41, 3/20:44 7.3%
dodfx 1/1:36, 3/20:38 5.5%
dodgx 1/1:139, 3/20:146 5%

My stock portforlio has been suffering this year due to neglect.  I’m down 2.5%, which is a miserable result, considering my mutual funds blew it away.
midd 87.05/86.2
I made a play on panic selling, but didn’t sell myself once the stock recovered.
This was up 11% at one time, for a few days.
wcc 44.5/47.7
I sold too quickly on this one. It moved as I expected, and I decided to
take the gains because of some earlier experiences with waiting too long
for the sell. Well, this was different, because the stock made some
big headway, and is now at 63. My mistake here was not paying attention
to the price action,and understanding the post spike consolidation pattern.

qqqq 41.92/41.23
Playing around with the qqqq reliably cyclic pattern. Unfortunately for me,
I bought in too late in the cycle, at the MACD crossover point. If the
rally would have continued, I would have made a small profit. The point here
is that I made the right move, and sold when the pattern stalled, but I bought
3 days late in the pattern, which cost me a about 2.5% on the trade.

kbh 75.71/64.01
Well, I bought this on 1/27, right before it changed trend. I was at
the right point in the macd/stoch cycle, and even say gains for a couple of days,
but external market trends worked against me. The trend continued downward until I took the max loss at 15%.
I’m running it as a bear call play in my virtual portforlio at the moment.
The thing I should have done different here is watch the news better, and
see that housing trouble in California was severely affecting this stock.
Of course, slg, a real-estate company, saw awesome runup. It was also on my close watch list,
but I decided against it because of it’s weak trend. Go figure.

ppdi 68.25/70.2
I played this on about as well as it could have been. It just didn’t
move like I wanted, and the market forecast looks bearish, so I’m bailing
before it turns into a loss in a near-term market downturn.

arg 37.2/37.88
I picked the right day to buy, but I was a few hours too late. I should have woken
up earlier, prior to market open, or bought the day before. It’s better to buy a little
early, and see a day of unrealized loss, than miss a big move up. I sold
at what I would consider a reasonable moment. It was nearing the top of the cycle,
and was unhappy with the overall trend. In review, it looks like it’s going to recover
into a nice trend, but it’s not showing up in my screen anymore.